What this planner is built to show
Most retirement calculators ask one question: does the money last to age 95? They model net worth on the back of average returns, fixed withdrawal rates, and a single tax assumption, then return a green checkmark or a red warning.
This planner asks a different question. Can you actually access enough spendable cash during the US bridge years between retirement and age 59½, when most of your money sits behind a 10% early-withdrawal penalty, when ACA and Medicare decisions matter, and when one bad sequence of market years can permanently break the plan?
What the model tracks separately
- Account access rules. Current 401(k), old 401(k)s, traditional IRA, Roth contributions, Roth conversion vintages, Roth earnings, HSA, taxable basis, taxable gains, and the 529 — each handled with its own withdrawal logic.
- Rule of 55. Only the current employer 401(k) is treated as Rule-of-55 accessible, and only if you separate at 55+. Old 401(k)s and IRAs are not eligible.
- Roth five-year vintages. Conversions create vintages tracked year by year. Each must season for five tax years before the principal can be withdrawn penalty-free.
- Healthcare separately. Pre-Medicare insurance is modeled as a distinct line. For a family it can easily run $20–30K/year, and lumping it into general spending hides the real bridge stress.
- Bridge stress signal. Looks at liquid runway, allocation, and lowest cash year to flag plans that look rich on paper but are fragile to a single bad year.
- Rough MAGI signal. A back-of-envelope income signal to flag possible ACA subsidy issues during pre-Medicare years. ACA subsidies are not calculated here.
What this planner does not do
- Federal brackets, state tax, IRMAA, RMDs, NIIT, AMT, capital gains brackets, or the standard deduction.
- Exact ACA subsidy math, IRA aggregation rules, Roth IRA five-year clock interactions, or the specific SEPP payment-method calculations (RMD method, amortization, annuitization).
- Return-to-India, RNOR, FX, or India tax-residency planning. Use the NRI Retirement Path Optimizer for cross-border paths.
- Plan document specifics — your 401(k) may not allow partial distributions, may not allow Rule of 55 separations, or may have unique vesting.
- Pension survivorship elections, COLA assumptions, or buyout offers.
- Behavioral risk — the temptation to sell in a downturn is the single largest threat to any plan, and no calculator can model it.
How to use it well
Run the base case. Then run the same plan with the crash-in-year-1 pattern. If the second run shows a shortfall or pushes liquid runway below two years, the plan is fragile regardless of what the long-term numbers say. Bridge years punish bad sequences far more than the rest of retirement does.
Then run again with retire age 55 and Rule of 55 strategy. Compare the lowest-liquid figures across scenarios. The right early retirement age is rarely the youngest one your spreadsheet allows — it is the one where the bridge stays resilient under stress.